As the days pass and it gets closer the day I chose as the pivot day March 1st, we shall see which way the market turns up or down. We as investors must realize there are ups and downs of the stock market and filter out the noise from what we hear on Bubble Vision (CNBC) for what is real. Look at the numbers, real hard numbers, statistics, even the the governments over-inflated numbers but read between the lines and understand as to what is happening around you. Think for yourself, not what others want you to think. Every evening we are shown the problems  of Europe, China, the Middle East only to distract us from our own problems. We are not in great shape and the sooner we take our heads out of the sand and face the problem, the sooner it gets solved. We have the largest natural gas and oil reserves in the world and who talks about it. You only hear about how gas is going to $4.00 a gallon this summer because of all the problems in the middle east, but we can't drill hear because the administration is placating to an environmental problem that we already have solved .
I am short until the 1st of March. I have been since my first post on Jan 18th. I know the market has gone up, but on low volume and for the most part, X-APPLE, it's up 1%. So when Apple moves back to 435-450 the market goes back to 1290-1300 then see if the forces can hold it from going lower. By that time the Greek Tragedy will be closer to unfolding and let's see how it plays out.

One quick note. Small business optimism is high, RIGHT!. Here is a chart from Doug Short and a  statement from the Wells Fargo Small Business Survey

YOU HAVE NOTHING TO FEAR BUT FEAR ITSELF. PLEASE RETURN TO YOUR CABINS, THE ICEBERG ONLY MEANS WE HAVE MORE ICE FOR YOUR DRINKS.

This market is trade able but it might be the last time before we get into a major correction that originally I thought would be on or about March 1st now I might have to move it back to June 1st as QE3 might slow things up. We could get Israel to help us get things back on track though. The SP500 is 42% over it's historic median trend line over the past 130 years and 70% over the median bottom adjusted for inflation over the same period. Bubble vision (CNBC) still touts nothing is wrong and everyone says your missing the market. I don't think so but time will tell. The chart below shows the percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average- a little top heavy, hey-and the relative strength and moving average convergence graph below. You will see three negative divergences. Each time a new top has been made in the stock market averages and the stocks above their 200 day average all three indicators have been trending down, NOT UP, as they should be in a strong market. Remember what happened in June 08 when all three crossed over (see below), I hope you owned a lot of PUT options I did, and I do now.

THERE IS NO NEED TO FEAR. PLEASE RETURN TO YOUR CABINS, THE ICEBERG ONLY MEANS WE HAVE MORE ICE FOR YOUR DRINKS.

This market is trade-able but it might be the last time before we get into a major correction that originally I thought would be on or about March 1st now I might have to move it back to June 1st as QE3 might slow things up. We could get Israel to help us get things back on track though. The SP500 is 42% over it's historic median trend line over the past 130 years and 70% over the median bottom adjusted for inflation over the same period. Bubble vision (CNBC) still touts nothing is wrong and everyone says your missing the market. I don't think so but time will tell. The chart below shows the percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average- a little top heavy, hey-and the relative strength and moving average convergence graph below. You will see three negative divergences. Each time a new top has been made in the stock market averages and the stocks above their 200 day average all three indicators have been trending down, NOT UP, as they should be in a strong market. Remember what happened in June 08 when all three crossed over (see below), I hope you owned a lot of PUT options I did, and I do now.

Kimble Charting Solutions asked , What would you do today, Well? Here is the chart, you decide.

The next chart shows the technical levels many markets are hitting today Feb 6th. Which way will they break up or down, I say up at least until March 1-3rd then we have to make a decision. Go with the over all trend which has been up or go with my gut feeling which is down. We shall see.

 

You wonder how things just never change. This is a New York Daily News article from 1949 and it is as true

today as it was then.

Thanks to Mish Shedlock for his thoughts and Trim Tabs for their insights. The feeling from me is mutual. We must look past the Governments statistics and see what is right there in front of us, if we only parse the data and look from a different viewpoint. I point out that the numbers you see are not, in the truest sense of the word, TRUE! And you have to parse the data, read between the lines, cut the chaff(you get the idea) and see the world , not through rose colored glasses, but for what it is, A MESS.





Trim Tabs writes ... "At its peak in February 2010, the federal government’s emergency and extended unemployment benefits programs provided assistance to 6.0 million people. Since then, the number of people receiving benefits has steadily declined, and they totaled only 3.4 million as of the week ended January 6. Since only 2.2 million jobs have been created since the recession started in December 2007—fewer than the number of people no longer receiving benefits—it is likely that 1.0 million or more people now lack both benefits and jobs."
Trim Tabs writes "According to the BEA, the loss of income from extended and emergency unemployment insurance benefits has amounted to $57 billion since January 2010. In the past twelve months, the loss of income amounted to $23 billion, which is equal to about 13.4% of the estimated $188 billion increase in wages and salaries in 2011. In 2012, we estimate that expiring benefits will reduce incomes by approximately $25 to $50 billion.".
For someone with a mortgage and underwater on their house with rising food and energy costs, the presumption is not likely to be correct and/or savings are not likely to be sufficient.
The obvious result is a "forced lifestyle change" and less spending.
This boomer drag on GDP trends is enormous, yet few see it.
Moreover, interests rates of 0% on CDs does not help any.